Under the situation of great downward pressure on my country's economy, my country's machinery industry in the first half of this year has shown a steady and progressing trend.
Recently, the China Machinery Industry Federation (hereinafter referred to as "China Machinery Federation") held a press conference on "The Economic Operation Situation of the Machinery Industry in the First Half of 2014" in Beijing. Chen Bin, executive vice president of China Machinery Federation, said at the meeting that since the beginning of the year, the growth rate of the main economic indicators of the machinery industry has been higher than the national industrial average, the export situation has improved, new results have been achieved in R&D and innovation, and the adjustment and upgrading of the industrial structure has shown positive changes. .
According to the forecast of China Machine Federation, affected by the base of the previous year, although the growth rate of the whole industry may fall in the second half of the year, the overall situation will stabilize. "It is expected that the annual growth rate of production and sales will be around 12%, the profit growth rate will be around 15%, and the growth rate of foreign trade exports will be higher than the level of the previous year." Chen Bin said.
The growth rate is higher than that of the national industry
According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of the added value of my country's machinery industry has been higher than that of the national industry. From January to June, the cumulative growth rate of the added value of the machinery industry was 11.2%, which was 2.4 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the national industrial added value in the same period and 2 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the machinery industry in the same period last year.
The reporter of "Electrical Business Daily" learned from the meeting that in the machinery industry, the operating situation of the automobile industry is better than that of the non-automotive industry, and the operating situation of the non-automotive industry is also better than the national industrial average.
"Because the machinery industry has the characteristics of relatively light energy and resource consumption, high technology and service added value, and is an industry that provides basic equipment for the development of the national economy, the development of the machinery industry is faster than the national industrial average. It meets the requirements of my country's industrial structure adjustment and upgrading." Chen Bin analyzed this.
From the perspective of the benefits of the machinery industry, the growth rate of profits has always been faster than the growth rate of income since the beginning of this year, continuing the rebound in the second half of last year. Specifically, from January to June, the accumulated total profit was 715.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.58%; the main business income was 10.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.52%; the profit growth rate was 8.06 higher than the growth rate of main business income in the same period. percentage points, higher than 7 percentage points in the same period last year.
Significant differentiation between industries
Among the 64 main products of the machinery industry announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, there were 45 products with a year-on-year increase in output in the first half of the year, accounting for 70.31%, an increase of 14.06 percentage points over the previous year, and 19 products with a year-on-year decrease in output, accounting for 29.69%.
In this regard, Chen Bin pointed out five characteristics of the economic operation of different industries. First, the production and sales of automobiles grew rapidly, reaching 11.78 million and 11.68 million respectively in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 9.6% and 8.36%, of which passenger car sales increased by 11.18% year-on-year, and commercial vehicle sales decreased by 3.18%.
Secondly, related products encouraged by national industrial policies such as consumption and environmental protection have grown relatively well, and the output of wind power equipment, internal combustion engines, analytical instruments, optical instruments, pumps, fans, air separation equipment, compressors, environmental protection equipment, and electric motors has increased significantly.
Furthermore, the growth of products that are closely related to investment, real estate, steel, coal and other industries is sluggish. For example, the recovery of the construction machinery industry in the first quarter was relatively obvious, but in April and May, it fell back into decline, mainly due to the insufficient operating rate of mines and the decline in the demand for coal, mining, sand and gravel earthmoving machinery. The representative of construction machinery from January to June Both the monthly and cumulative output of excavators and loaders of sexual products decreased year-on-year.
Chen Bin specifically mentioned the agricultural machinery industry. Affected by the slowdown in market demand, although the agricultural machinery industry was in a good situation at the beginning of the year, the output of large and medium-sized tractors declined month by month, and the cumulative output of large, medium and small tractors from January to June had all experienced negative growth.
In addition, the related products of power transmission and transformation equipment have increased to varying degrees.
In the second half of the year, the trend is basically stable
Looking forward to the future, Chen Bin pointed out that my country's macroeconomic situation is warming, the development environment of the machinery industry is expected to gradually improve in the second half of the year, the world economy is generally improving, and the export market is expected to continue to maintain steady growth.
"We believe that the trend of the machinery industry will remain basically stable in the second half of the year. It is expected that the growth rate of main business revenue will be around 12%, the growth rate of profits will be around 15%, and the growth rate of exports will be around 8%." Under the general trend of progress, he also reminded the industry to pay attention to the unfavorable factors such as difficulty in recovering payment for goods, rising financing costs, and unstable order recovery in the operation of the industry.
Chen Bin said that since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of financial expenses in the machinery industry has increased significantly compared with the same period of the previous year. Under the influence of multiple factors such as insufficient demand and rising financing costs, the accounts receivable of the machinery industry continued to be at a high level and showed a trend of increasing month by month.
"In the field research, the difficulty of collecting accounts is a common problem reported by enterprises, and in the accounts collected, the proportion of acceptance bills has increased significantly, which further increases the pressure on enterprises' financial expenses." He emphasized.
In addition, the competition in the mechanical product market has become more intense, and the overall price level has continued the sluggish trend of the previous year. As of June, the cumulative price index of mechanical products has been below 100% for 30 consecutive months.
According to the statistics of China Machinery Federation, the order growth rate of key enterprises has fluctuated this year. In the first quarter, the orders of key enterprises under investigation in the machinery industry showed signs of recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 8.35% from January to February, and an increase of 10.67% from January to March. However, after entering the second quarter, the growth rate of orders dropped significantly. From January to June, the growth rate was only 7.65% year-on-year, which was 3.02 percentage points lower than that of the first quarter.
"This shows that market demand is still weak, and we need to pay close attention to the later trend." Chen Bin reminded.